Russia: what is the outlook for oil and gas over next five years?

Will sanctions have an effect on Russia’s export of oil and gas in the coming years? 

Russia’s oil and gas sector is poised for significant developments between 2025 and 2030, influenced by evolving global demand, technological advancements, and shifting geopolitical landscapes.  

Let’s look at some insights from recent reports to get a feel for the anticipated trajectory for Russia’s oil and gas production and exports. 

Oil production and refining capacity 

Russia aims to increase its oil production to meet rising global demand. Projections indicate that by 2030, global oil consumption could rise by 5 to 7 million barrels per day, with Russia prepared to adjust its output accordingly.  

In 2024, Russia’s oil production stood at approximately 10.66 million barrels per day, with plans to reach 10.84 million barrels per day by 2030, contingent on market dynamics and OPEC+ agreements.   

The country’s refining sector is also set for expansion. The “Russia Crude Oil Refinery Outlook to 2030” report provides detailed insights into active and planned refineries, including capacities of major processing units. T 

his expansion aims to enhance Russia’s ability to process crude oil domestically, thereby increasing the value of its exports. 

Natural gas exports 

In the natural gas sector, Russia is focusing on strengthening its position as a leading global supplier.  

The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies’ report, “A New Global Gas Order? (Part 1): The Outlook to 2030 after the Energy Crisis,” discusses the evolving dynamics of global gas demand and Russia’s role in meeting this demand. The report highlights the importance of adapting to new market conditions post-energy crisis to maintain and grow market share. 

Technological advancements 

The Russian oilfield services (OFS) market has demonstrated resilience amidst challenges such as sanctions and technological dependencies.  

Estimates suggest that the OFS market could grow from USD 20 billion in 2022 to USD 24 billion by 2030, provided that critical technological gaps are addressed. Failure to do so could risk a 20% decline in oil production due to shortages in high-tech services traditionally supplied by Western companies.   

Key priorities for the OFS sector include developing domestic capabilities in hydraulic fracturing, measurement-while-drilling (MWD) and logging-while-drilling (LWD) technologies, and rotary steerable systems (RSS).  

Addressing these areas is crucial for sustaining production levels, especially in hard-to-recover reserves and offshore projects. 

The oil and gas industry remains a cornerstone of the Russian economy. Strategic investments in refining capacity, technological innovation, and market diversification are essential to capitalize on projected global demand increases.  

However, the industry must navigate challenges such as geopolitical tensions, potential sanctions, and the global shift towards renewable energy sources.