Is Jet Fuel Demand on the Up?

According to new statistics, airline travel is on the rise which goes together with a surge in jet fuel demand. British-based air travel intelligence company OAG recently revealed the popular route between London Heathrow and New York's JFK generates more than $1.15 billion in revenue a year. Flightradar24 also released data showing a record 225,000 aircraft took to the skies in a single day in July 2019. Around the world, this accounts for a huge 156 departing flights per minute.

With around 85% of the world population still living in developing countries, the opportunity to fly will continue to grow over the coming decades. As a result, demand for jet fuel, as well as bases like unleaded kerosene (JetA-1) and naphtha-kerosene blend (Jet B), will soar and play a central role in accelerating globalisation.

Demand for air travel set to double over next 20 years

Within the next two decades, analysts predict demand for air travel could double. In turn, this could see jet fuel consumption climb to around 15 million b/d. While other transport fuels like oil and diesel are set to decline, with the UK even pledging to ban sales of all new diesel and petrol vehicles by 2032, jet fuel will maintain its relevance thanks to the booming aviation industry.

This is largely because no other form of transport can match air travel when it comes to cost competitiveness and convenience. It may be energy-devouring, but flying is also fast and cost-effective which made it the transport method of choice for 4.5 billion passengers travelling on almost 45 million flights in 2018. These were record breaking figures and support predictions that the aviation industry will only continue to grow over the coming decades.

Developing nations set to drive jet fuel demand

Developing nations will play a major role in driving demand for jet fuel. For example, the United States has eight times more air travellers than India, despite the fact the latter has four times the population. If Indians start to fly as much as their American counterparts, the total number of global air travel passengers could spike by 70%.

Currently, wealthy Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) nations such as the United States, United Kingdom, France and Germany, account for around 60% of the global jet fuel market, despite housing just 15% of the global population. As economies in countries like China, Africa and India grow over the next two decades, experts predict non-OECD markets will claim a 55% share of world jet fuel.

For a closer look at the mechanics of the jet fuel industry, don't miss 'ASTM D7220: Accurate and Precise Analysis of Ultra-Low Sulfur (ULS) in Automotive, Heating, and Jet Fuels.'